Dating in business are kellyanne and wes dating
Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways.A: Personal income comes from Table 2.6 of the National Income and Product Accounts, less personal current transfer receipts from the same table, deflated by a monthly interpolation of the price index for gross domestic product, NIPA Table 1.1.9. The committee also considered new estimates of monthly real GDP and GDI constructed by two committee members, James Stock and Mark Watson (available here).Many of the ingredients of the quarterly GDP figures are published at a monthly frequency by government agencies.A: A bulge in jobless claims usually forecasts declining employment and rising unemployment, but we do not use the initial claims numbers in determining our chronology, partly because of noise in that data series.Q: How do the cyclical fluctuations in the unemployment rate relate to the NBER business-cycle chronology?A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them.In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
No changes have occurred since 1978 when the Business Cycle Dating Committee was formed.
For example, in the recovery beginning in March 1991, the unemployment rate continued to rise for 15 months after the trough. In the current recovery, the lag was only 4 months, from the trough in activity in June 2009 to the highest level of the unemployment rate in October 2009.
Q: What data from the National Income and Product Accounts are used in the calculation of real personal income less transfers? Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, prepares estimates of monthly real GDP.
In that cycle, as well, the dating of the trough relied primarily on output measures.
Q: Isn't a recession a period of diminished economic activity?